Modeling the economic consequences of climate change is difficult, uncertain work. In addition, any result is sure to be subjected to political attack. For decades, Yale’s William Nordhaus has been developing models that can inform policy decisions.
Accurately assessing how the planet’s climate will change in the decades and centuries to come is an incredibly complex and uncertain task. Predicting future twists and turns in the economy is no easier. Mesh the two together, and you’re a long way from a back-of-the-envelope sort of calculation. To take just one variable out of thousands: Will sea-level rise this century remain in the expected range of two to seven feet, or could instability in the massive East Antarctic ice sheet add significantly to the surge? And if that happens, which cities can adapt and which will be inundated, and how will such variations affect economic production?
http://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-will-climate-change-do-economy
